When Jean McClung found a DVD by the late Lance Endersbee it changed our lives. This is just one of his diagrams.
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ABC shows the prosperous life we had, leading to 1970 and could have continued having. If we had better knowledge of economics and trends we could have continued to grow comfortably above the cost of living. Instead, all of the Developed World wanted to help the Developing World It was a noble gesture but the unforeseen consequences were that as tariffs reduced so also did the GDP growth of the Developed countries
This a part of the message I sent to Neil Andrew the chairman of MDBA. After our feisty exchanges he had to leave. He said that as speaker of the Lower House he was one who initiated the start of tariff reductions.
We were just about to get to a subject which is very dear to my heart- the merits or otherwise of Australia and the rest of the Developed World starting to reduce tariffs.
As a former engineer and consultant, when I was sent a DVD by the late Lance Endersbee it changed my life. There was instant recognition but I could not believe that it was true. The main diagram is shown in the attachment.
Lance has passed on but I continued to plot AFG without the ore export bubble. Lance accepted that the start of the reduction in tariffs in 1970 was a noble gesture. it was confirmed as The Lima Declaration in 1975. In 1996 Lance stated that no one could foresee the devastating destruction of manufacturing in Developed Countries and for example the affects on the Valencia orange industry with the importation of cancerous orange concentrate from Brazil which has no antioxidants and no vitamin C.
In 1996 Lance predicted that if the reduction in GDP growth continued that Europe would collapse first and the United States would follow. He said that if Australia's manufacturing and agriculture continued strongly that we would not follow. Since then both have tanked.
To his credit Michal was the only one person who as has ever commented in 4 years when asked the reason for this inverse relatiomnship. He blamed it on the weather. That was so stupendous that it is included in the book ‘Michael, do not let us die.’
We asked Micahel to invite Barnaby Joyce to visit and solve the the problems which were beyond Michael's capability. All that we got from Barnaby was a four page letter. It showed how much out of touch we was that I wrote the book whose cover is shown
Joe hockey said - and I wonder if you agree - that about 3% GDP growth is needed to maintain stability and to ensure that our Government will not go into debt. Government and the community are now addicted to debt.
My latest book is 'Australia - sleepwalking to Oblivion.' Our GDP growth hovers between 0.6% and 1.8%. At the G20 in Brisbane in October 2014 we were the 12th richest country in the world. We are now 13th and probably about to go down another notch.
In 1996, heading towards point F along ABF, Lance said that unless the downward trend in GDP Growth could be reversed that Europe would collapse first and the US would follow. In 1996 he said that if Australia could retain strong manufacturing and strong agriculture that Australia would not have to follow them down. Both have tanked since then.
Not one politician has been prepared to discuss the consequesnces of tariff reduction being GDP growth reduction which equates to ever increasing debt. It seems that the only response the Goverment has is to sell Australia's assets.
I challenged Barnaby Joyce and Matthew Canavan to discuss this with no response. Refer to INFO-Economics-Economics Professor.